7 Point Teaser: Green Bay Packers (-130)
Tease the Packers up from +3.5 to +10.5
Packers +3.5 is one of my favorite lines of NFL Week 1 and getting them all the way through the 10 is gravy.
You are able to get the Packers through all three major key numbers as the line opened through the key number of 3.
The 7 point teaser allows you to get through the key numbers of 7 and 10 providing an immense amount of value utilizing the 7 point teaser opposed to having +9.5 with a 6 point teaser.
Let’s look deeper as to why the Green Bay Packers +10.5 is the best NFL Week 1 teaser pick.
1. Overrated Bears
The current line has inflated value for the Bears as a result of the 12-4 season in 2018.
The 12-4 season was largely due to the Bears soft schedule in 2018.
The Bears faced the third easiest schedule in terms of defensive efficiency.
Facing a weak defensive opponent on average helped sustain the performance of the below average passing of Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky.
2. Mitchell Trubisky
The 2018 Bears did not succeed because of Trubisky.
Trubisky was the beneficiary of an elite defense and a soft schedule.
Having faced the 3rd easiest defensive schedule in 2018, Trubisky still only manged to rank as the 18th best QB by football outsiders.
Mitchell Tribusky is a quarterback who struggles with accuracy and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was off target in Week 1.
3. Chicago’s Home-field Advantage?
While Solider Field will always be a difficult stadium to play in, the Packers have two factors that will help offset the Bears home field advantage in Week 1.
The Packers will be making the short 200 mile trip from Green Bay to Chicago.
This trip will not require the Packers to change climates or time zones.
It’s week 1 of the NFL season!
No injuries. No Bye Weeks. No grind of the regular season.
Nobody is looking ahead to next year.
The entire league is ready to make a run to the Superbowl.
Aaron Rodgers could eventually revolt against new head coach Matt LaFleur as he did against Mike McCarthy last season.
If he does…it will not happen in Week 1.
4. Aaron Rodgers vs. The Bears
Aaron Rodgers has owned the Bears in his career. Rodgers lifetime record is 16-4 against Chicago.
Although the last two match-ups between Rodgers and the Bears have not been as dominant.
In the two 2018 meetings between Rodgers and the Bears, Rodgers lead a 4th quarter comeback for a 1 point victory in Week 1 and suffered a 17-24 loss in Week 15.
Rodgers recent struggles against Chicago can be attributed to a stout Bears defense. The Bears defense was ranked #1 overall by Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders in 2018.
This number #1 ranking defense was a combination of supreme talent and coaching.
5. Vic Fangio Departure
Chicago’s 2018 defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has coached defenses to a top 5 finish in total yards allowed in 8 of the past 12 years he has been a defensive coordinator.
Week 1 will be the Bears first game without Vic Fangio as the coordinator calling plays on defense since 2014 as Fangio took the head coach job with the Denver Broncos.
New Bears defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano’s last defensive coordinator job was in 2011.
Pagano last coached in 2017 as the Indianapolis Colt’s head coach.
This will be Pagano’s first live action on the sidelines in nearly two years.
6. Rodger’s Comeback Tour
Aaron Rodgers will be playing with something to prove. He wants to prove it was McCarthy’s fault the Packers have not been a juggernaut during Rodger’s career.
Thus a Week 1 stand alone game to kickoff the 2019 season is just what Rodgers needs to demonstrate his point.
You better believe this one will be close. It’s a division game of two teams who know each other well!
I can see it coming down to a late 4th quarter drive to decide the game.
Give me 10.5 points and a hungry Aaron Rodgers!