Super Bowl 54 is the media narrative of an immovable object vs an unstoppable force.
If you want to back the 49ers stout defense or the Chiefs high octane offense, you should be able to cash in on a correlated parlay in Super Bowl 54.
I will show you how to bet the game for the most value and let you know what side and props I will be on.
If you like the Chiefs…
Parlay Chiefs -1.5 with the over 54
If the Chiefs are going to win the game they will move the ball on the highly rated (overrated?) 49ers defense.
I expect the 49ers and Kyle Shanahan to have a successful gameplay against an average Chiefs defense.
George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk should exploit the Chief’s weak linebacking core but ultimately Jimmy G will not hang score for score with Patrick Mahomes.
If you like the 49ers…
Parlay 49ers +1.5 or ML with the under 54
The 49ers initial game plan must be to shorten the game and run the ball with Raheem Mostert.
The best way to beat Mahomes is to keep him on the sidelines.
The Chiefs can be beaten on the ground as their rush defense ranks 4th worst in the league by football outsiders.
If the 49ers successfully run the ball and the well rested defense slows down the Chiefs on limited possessions then the 49ers will prevail in a low scoring affair.
I am betting the Chiefs
Pro football focus ranks the 49ers as the best pass coverage team in the NFL.
However I believe the pass coverage success is a product of an elite four man pass rush.
I believe the Kansas City offensive line who excels in pass protection (ranked 4th overall by football outsiders) will slow down the dangerous 49ers pass rush.
The Chiefs will play up tempo to wear down the 49ers pass rush throughout the game.
Mahomes’ elite escapability and Andy Reid’s offensive genius will combine to outmaneuver the 49ers pass rush.
This will allow for the Chiefs track speed receiving core to expose a 49ers secondary who has been the beneficiary of a four man pass rush.
The 49ers primarily play a zone defense.
Patrick Mahomes historically shreds zone defenses and has struggled against man coverage.
I believe the 49ers playing zone has been the effective game plan to cover up the weakness of the 49ers inability to play man coverage.
I am betting Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense is the answer to exposing a highly touted 49ers defense.
Mahomes will move the ball and force the 49ers to keep up score for score.
I believe the Chiefs are the best team in football and Patrick Mahomes wins his first of many Super Bowls.
Dre Greenlaw Under 5.5 Total Tackles and Assists
Dre Greenlaw’s production is limited when Kwon Alexander plays.
Greenlaw averages 3 combined tackles and assists per game when Kwon Alexander is healthy and in the lineup.
Jimmy Garoppolo 1st Pass Complete
Kyle Shanahan likes to give his QB an easy throw to start the game. Jimmy Garoppolo is 21/24 in first pass attempts under Shanahan.
I’ll take my chances this easy pass trend continues in a high stress game.
Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Touchdown Passes
The Chiefs play fast and score fast.
Patrick Mahomes will roll and throw at least 3 TDs in a Chiefs victory.
I’ll take the plus money price.
Raheem Mostert Over 65.5 Rush Yards
Feeding Raheem Mostert will be the winning strategy for the 49ers.
I don’t believe Coleman will play much in the Super Bowl and Mostert is the 49er’s best running back.
I believe he will be near 100 yards rushing whether the 49ers win or lose.
Raheem Mostert Scores a TD
Mostert should be the focal point of the 49ers offense.
The 49ers have been rushing the ball successfully and execute well in the red zone.
Patrick Mahomes Under 33.5 Rush Yards
This prop is getting too much love to the over.
We are fresh off the epic Mahomes touchdown run against the Titans.
However, Mahomes has rushed for more than 28.5 yards only 7 of his 35 career games.
His last two 50+ yard rushing playoff games were against the Titans and Texans who primarily play man coverage.
The 49ers primary play zone coverage and should not allow Mahomes to run free with defenders backs turned.
Good Luck with your bets and Go Chiefs!