Week 1 NFL betting picks: profitable strategies and ideas | teasers, live bets, underdogs, trap lines, and season long trends

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NFL Week 1 Gambling Podcast Transcript

Bradley:
Yes, sir. Yes, sir. Mr. Russ, you know what time it is. Welcome back to the Pre-Snap Picks Podcast. NFL. Week one. Let’s go. I’m your host, Bradley Porras, joined alongside my guy,out of Boston, Massachusetts, Russ Vaughan.

Russ:
Let’s go. I am ready to roll week one, Brad, before we get started, I want to go through a checklist here. Behind the scenes, as good as you are with the intros you lack a little bit on the production. Have we recorded? Are we starting to record? Have you pressed the record button?

Bradley:
You know what, Russ? I did hit the record button this time. And, you know, even if I didn’t hit the record button, the people wouldn’t be hearing it right now because it wouldn’t be recording. I will say, this is the fifth show we’ve done. I think I’ve not hit record twice. Rookie mistake.

Russ:
So what you’re batting .500 here on the on the press record button.

Bradley:
I’m a little over .500

Russ:
C’mon man, get it right. The other thing. Give the listeners a little insight into the beginning of your week. Tell them how much of a degenerate you are.

Bradley:
I’d like to consider it dedicated. If you’re a serious sports bettor, I know you’re probably getting this plastered all over if you listen to any gambling stuff. The Circa Sports contest in Las Vegas, looking like it could possibly have an overlay. Little business trip Monday. Easy up, easy down into the desert.

Russ:
Did you take a PJ?

Bradley:
I took a what?

Russ:
A PJ. A private jet.

Bradley:
I’m just country out here, you know? I don’t even know what that slang means. That is some city term up there in Boston, man.

Russ:
You took Coach? God, man. That’s so not you. You’re big time. You must have taken first class, at least.

Bradley:
I took Coach and rode shotgun with the Coronavirus. So, we’ll see how it turns out. Let’s go, Russ, I’m going to be entered into the Circa Sports Million contest. So, guys, I’m going to be picking five games. If you want to follow along on the website, I’m picking my five games. I’m putting them up for you to see on Saturdays, most likely. Russ is picking five games, and we will have a special guest picker every single week. A special show for everyone for pure entertainment purposes to prove a point, to see how much skill or luck it is to bet against the spread from week to week in the NFL. Brings us to the next point. The basis of this show, this is our meat and potatoes show that we’re excited to bring you week in and week out. This is how we plan on attacking the betting market week in and week out. It’s not against the spread. Against the spread in the NFL is going to be a long term losing proposition, so Russ and I are going to let you know how we plan on attacking these games.

Bradley:
Anything else you want to add, Russ?

Russ:
Let’s get into it.

Bradley:
First, a little bit of housekeeping. Please keep the the ratings and reviews coming. It really does mean a ton to us.

Russ:
We can’t do it without them. We can’t do it without our loyal listeners.

Bradley:
No, we can’t. I mean, if we were just talking into into a black hole, then, I mean, I guess we’d still be having fun with, Russ. But it’s more fun whenever we can share it with everyone.

Bradley:
Bigboy 22. He said, “I enjoy listening to people who I believe know what they’re talking about.” Thanks Bigboy..

Russ:
That’s me. That one’s on me. I’ll shoulder the weight on that one.

Bradley:
You know what you’re talking about. Me? I mean, I’m just kind of rambling on sometimes.

Bradley:
Mr. Mark Cerny said, “I ran across the show looking for new podcast content for the 2020 season. What a gem! Brad and Russ are insightful with some personality.” I got the personality there, Russ, come on.

Russ:
You do. I can’t you can’t dispute that one.

Bradley:
You ain’t a morning person..

Russ:
You get my fucking ass up at eight o’clock in the morning. That’s early for me, man.

Bradley:
You need to let people know you’re still recording from bed. You’re under the covers right now.

Russ:
I know, I am.

Bradley:
I’ve been standing here since six o’clock. Just waiting at the microphone.

Russ:
Just swinging the hips. When is Russ going to get up? When is Russ going to give me the call?

Bradley:
Finally. A little late..

Teasers

Bradley:
OK, guys. Let’s go. NFL Week 1, teasers! I love me a teaser. A good six point teaser. We’re going to give you our favorite six point teaser for NFL Week 1. I’ve got mine. Russ has got his. Russ, what you got? Where’s your teaser? Where are you going?

Russ:
Hey, before we get into our picks for the teasers. I think back a year ago when you got me into this shit, Brad. I didn’t know what the fuck a teaser was. So at a high level, do you want to explain to the listeners what a teaser is, how it looks, functions like?

Bradley:
The teaser, you can do either a six or seven point teaser. Really, it’s best if on the six point teaser you can find it -110 or -115, OK. But, if you’re laying -120 or greater on the six point teaser it’s probably best if you don’t go that route. If you can find seven point teasers, for -120, that’s laying $120 to win $100. That’s good. But if you’re starting to lay -130 or -140, the books were getting beat by teasers long term several years ago, and they realized that they needed to up the juice to to reduce the break even point that bettors would need to get to. If you can find the -110 on the six point teaser, then this is a good betting proposition for you. Russ and I have both found a way to get -110. So, this is why it’s it’s a plan of attack for us. So, you’re adjusting the point spread six points in your favor. So, if the team is, -7.5, then they are a 7.5 point favorite and you can get them -1.5. However, you’ve got to pair it up with another team and both teams have to win. So, you could take the -7.5 down to -1.5, and then you could pick a team that’s +1.5 and move them up to +7.5.

Bradley:
If the teams is +10, like the Texans in week one, you’d move them to +16. You’re moving it six points in your favor. If you picked the Chiefs, you move them from -10 to -4. So, you’re just moving the point spread six points in your favor. But, they both have to win. If one wins and one loses, it all loses. It’s all a loss. They both got to win. So that’s the basic six point teaser.

Russ:
It basically gives us confidence that we have a good fucking bet and we’ll still lose it. That’s just how the teasers work. That’s what I realized last year is like, oh God, I love my damn teaser, but how the fuck did I still lose it?

Bradley:
If you go to the website, I wrote an article about why I like teasers the percent of time that three, four, six, seven, eight, ten points are decided by that amount. So, that’s why you really want to get through the key numbers and we’re going to stick to that. I’m not really interested in just teasing teams just to tease them, although sometimes you’ll look at a game like, oh my gosh, like how can they possibly lose by this many points? Or, of course, this team’s going to win. But, like Russ said, there’s a lot of times you see that and it still loses.

Russ:
Let’s get into it. I’ll give you guys my teaser. So, I’m going with the Dolphins +12 and Eagles -0.5. So, it’s basically Eagles, pick em. Just don’t fucking tie, Eagles. Don’t fucking tie.

Russ:
The reason why I like the Dolphins away at the Patriots, +12 is a really big number for me. When I think about the Patriots offense and defense, there’s so many question marks. I’m getting lower and lower on the Pats as the days go on, and I listen to Boston sports talk radio in my ear. It’s just like, how is Cam going to fare? How is McDaniels going to adjust play calling to meet this offense that is completely different than what he’s been running for the last decade. Who the hell is Cam throwing to? Obviously, you have Edelman and N’keal Harry, but outside of them, they’re all guys that I don’t know too much about. Damiere Byrd? Ross? New England just let go of Mohamed Sanu to clear $6.5 Million worth of cap space. You have question marks at the quarterback position in Cam Newton. His accuracy and in an offense that loves to run these slants and quick throws, accuracy is imperative. And, Cam doesn’t have that. He just doesn’t have accuracy..

Russ:
Not to mention on the defensive side, you have two huge leaders opting out in Patrick Chung and Donte Hightower. There are question marks all over the place..

Russ:
When you flip it and you look at the Dolphins, I feel like they’ve gotten better everywhere except maybe the wide receiver position. The wide receiver position is a little thin. You have DeVante Parker, the tight end, Gesicki, and not too much else after them. But, you have a formidable quarterback duo in Fitzpatrick and Tua. You have an improved defense with Byron Jones and Kyle Van Not. A good running back game in Breida and Howard. I really like what the Dolphins have done this offseason more so than probably any team. And, I think the environment of Covid-19, a post Covid-19 NFL season is going to favor teams that should underachieve to ultimately allow them to overachieve. There’s less pressure, less boo-birds in the stands. And, I also think you have to take a look at the head coach. It’s going to be a weird mental dynamic for these players to go in week one. No fans. It’s something that’s unprecedented. They’re not used to. There’s so much riding on the head coach’s ability to get the guys right and ready to go for week one. Not to say that Belichick isn’t going to get his team there. He’s absolutely going to get his team there. But, do not sleep on Brian Flores. That guy knows how to coach. He’s shown that he’s had a plan and he’s executing this plan in the off season. I love the Dolphins at +12, especially when I think the Patriots offense is going to be hard-pressed to score.

Bradley:
No, I like that, getting it to +12. Typically, you are teasing your points to get through the seven to eight and the ten is good. Ideally, you’d like to get the 11 and 12 are kind of iffy. Like you said, Patriots are going to have a hard time to score, possibly. Brand new offense and quarterback, last time we saw Cam, he wasn’t interested in running. He wasn’t accurate throwing. We’ll see. Maybe it’s a healthy Cam, but I think I may have been selling you on the dolphins pretty hard and maybe you’ve bought in. I’m glad to see that you’re putting your money behind the Dolphins.

Russ:
I’ll even say I’m buying in more and more on your Patriots under 7.5 wins that you had earlier this year.

Bradley:
Alternate total.

Russ:
I called you crazy when that happened. I was like, I do not agree with it. But, man, the more and more I think about this Patriots team, the more and more likely I think it is that they go 3-13. It’s looking pretty bleak. But there’s also the other the other leg of the teaser that’s just as important as the first leg.

Bradley:
Oh yeah. Got to win them both.

Russ:
Eagles, -0.5. I think the NFC East is the Eagles division to lose.

Bradley:
Kyle wouldn’t like that.

Russ:
I know Kyle would hate it, and I’m close with some Cowboy fans, so I’m going to get some slack.

Russ:
The addition of Javon Hargrave, who was Pro Football Focus’ number four pass rushing defensive tackle in 2019. He’s going to bring the heat. He’s going to free up the wrecking ball, who is Fletcher Cox. You’re adding All Pro Corner, 3x Pro Bowler, Darius Slay. You’re also adding Nickell Robey-Coleman as one of the league’s best slot corners. And then on the offensive side, you guys know who is over there: Myles Sanders, Zach Ertz, Goedert, Wentz.

Russ:
Deshaun Jackson is going to be your number one wide-out, so that does give me a little bit of pause. But, ultimately, look at the offensive line: Lane Johnson and Jason Kelsey, make up what will be, at worst, a top ten O-line in the league. They should be able to to protect Carson Wentz. And, I think it’s just way too much firepower that the Eagles have for the Washington Football Team to compete with them. When I look at this matchup and all I need is the Eagles to win, don’t fucking tied Eagles. I feel good about it.

Bradley:
Total disclaimer. The Eagles are not one of my picks, but I did tease the Eagles earlier in the year and put them out in an article because I’m not a believer in Dwayne Haskins. I’m not a believer in the ‘Skins. You got all the turmoil in Washington with the name. Sorry, the Skins. The Football Team. I don’t know, how many times we’re going to do this year? The turmoil in the name change, but I can’t get totally down on the Washington Football Team because the reports are coming out that Gruden didn’t want Haskins. Maybe Haskins plays better this year. Maybe he dedicates himself. The way he is taking selfies after the game. He doesn’t come across as like completely dedicated. He has talent for sure. I’m not sold on him. I do like the Eagles to win the division, to win the NFC East. So, I’m with you. I mean, I’m with you literally with my money on the Eagles to win this game in a teaser. But, they’re not one of my teasers just because of the injury to Brandon Brooks. Possibly, Washington could be a little better. Better than what I thought this year. So, there’s two other places that I like a little bit more than that. But, we’re locking you down. You’ve got the Eagles and Dolphins. That’s your official teaser?

Russ:
If you guys want a fucking winner, tail me. It’s going to hit. How are you going to hit We’re going to start the season off right.

Bradley:
We’re going to see. I can’t wait to see what our records are stacking up throughout the year.

Bradley:
So, my first teaser is going to be the Indianapolis Colts, down from a consensus -7.5 to a -1.5. Just like with Russ in the Miami, New England game, the collision of two opinions on a high and a low. There may be consensus opinions across the entire landscape. I like the Colts a lot. They are my AFC South champ. I got them way back in the beginning of the summer, +170 to win the South. I’ve been a believer in them. I’ve always liked Philip Rivers. They were a really good team, divisional round team, before Andrew Luck bounced on them right before the season. Hey, if you want to do what you want to do with your life, that’s fine. I got nothing against Andrew Luck. It’s his life, his decision. He doesn’t need to live his life, to please others, nor should anybody. But, he did kind of screw them over leaving right before the beginning of the year. That kind of hung the Colts out to dry last year. They had injuries on defense. I think they get their defense back to that near AFC championship game form and get some stability in Philip Rivers to go along with a rock solid offensive line. The addition of Johnathan Taylor out of Wisconsin. They are going to be solid team. I think they win the South, and for them to go up against Jacksonville Jaguars who doesn’t do much well anywhere. They may go 0-16.

Bradley:
The Jaguars can’t rush the passer. So, what did they do earlier this week? They trade Yannick Ngakoue, their best pass rusher. A 1,000 yard rusher, Leonard Fournette, supposed to be their franchise guy. Cut him..

Russ:
Fournette sucks.

Bradley:
Yeah, he still rushed for 1,000 yards. I mean, he’s better than whatever they have there now. I can’t remember his name.

Russ:
Is it Yeldon?

Bradley:
It’s a different guy, but Fournette is better than him and you go and cut him. I mean, Jalen Ramsey, AJ Bouye…

Russ:
There’s questions that go so far beyond, for the Jags, their product on the field in terms of how management leaves their team out to dry, medically I think it is. I can’t remember exactly what happened, but there’s a lot of question marks in terms of how management is forcing players to play with potential injuries. Trust is gone. That organization is in a little bit in a disarray right now. I don’t think having a one or two win season is unlikely.

Bradley:
This is a divisional game. We’re asking for the best team in the division, in my opinion, to beat the worst team, cover -1.5. I love this one is my favorite.

Russ:
You think Rivers still has it?

Bradley:
I think so. I think he does. I like Phillip. I mean, a lot of people do give Phillip a bad rap, but I think he has it. He’s got T.Y. Hilton. He’s got a great offensive line to block for him. The offensive line in San Diego. I can’t get this shit right. The offensive line In Los Angeles was God awful last year. It was God awful. He has a great line behind him. I think we can see a much improved Philip Rivers getting. I mean, hey, go play backyard football. You got three Mississippi, man it’s going to be hard to find somebody. When you got four or five Mississippi, maybe it’s little bit easier for old Phillip.

Bradley:
So, hey, I’m pivoting to my next game. I really wanted this to be my dog pick. But, I couldn’t do this because I really like it more as a teaser and it’s too short. I’m going to the Tennessee Titans against the Denver Broncos.

Bradley:
I’m taking the Titans up from +1.5 to +7.5, getting them through the three, the four and the seven. All the way through the seven. Titans over the field goal and the hook. I’m not super duper high on the Titans. I just think the Titans are a good team.

Bradley:
The Titans are well coached by Mike Vrabel. They’ve got a rock solid defense. I mean, when you look at their team. They’re essentially the same team that knocked off the juggernaut Ravens. They’re not much different. They’re well coached. They’re rock solid group. I don’t see where there’s this big drop off between last year and this year. And all they have to do, I know it’s a road game, but they’re playing the Denver Broncos and Drew Lock. The Broncos have so much hype around them. Drew Lock tore up the league last year against some of the worst pass defenses and the best passing environment. The one time he played against a really quality team in the Chiefs in the snow, he looked horrible. I’ve seen Drew Lock play his college days at Mizzou. I not from Missouri. I love watching college football, too. I’m not sold on Drew Lock. I’m not sold on this Broncos team.

Bradley:
The Titans are a quality coached team, have a good run game, good line, rock solid defense. Give me the better team, plus the touchdown and the hook.

Russ:
I like it for this reason. I was looking at the total points scored for this game because I think both of these teams like to run the ball. They want to run the ball, at least first. I think that’s clear with the Titans. You have Derrick Henry back there. He’s your workhorse. Give him the rock. Let him ride. Drew Lock and the Broncos, if you’re smart about it. This kid is young. You have to balance him out with that run game and Phillip Lindsey. So, if we’re spending a lot of time on the ground, moving the chains, it just necessitates or facilitates, whatever the word is, a tighter ball game. You’re going to sweat this one out. You’re going to lose some hair or gray up a little bit. I think it’s going to be a close game. With that, a lower scoring game. I think it’s going under that 41. So, it’s going to be a tighter game. And, I think you’re +7.5. It looks good.

Bradley:
Thanks, Russ.

Russ:
I always got your back..

Bradley:
I got the Titans +7.5. I got the Colts -1.5.

Russ:
I got Dolphins +12 and Eagles -0.5.

Bradley:
All right, let’s go. We are getting on. This is going to be a very fun segment. I’m going to really enjoy it. You’re going to need to to really strap in and use your brain and your eyeballs for this one. Live bet watch.

Live Betting Watch

Bradley:
These are the games that Russ and I both don’t necessarily have a super strong opinion on a side against the spread just straight up. But it’s a game that we feel like there’s opportunity to be had betting it in-game. We’re going to be watching these games to look for an opportunity to hop on a side or total if it presents value. Any game could present value. But these are games that we’re going to be watching closely. And we think you should, too, for these specific reasons. Russ, what’s your first game you’re looking to possibly live bet?

Russ:
I’m looking at live betting, Seattle at Atlanta. And here’s the reason. The betting line right now, Seattle, -1.5 or money-line at -125. So, the way I look at it is you’re getting good starting value for potential Super Bowl contender in the Seattle Seahawks. If you listened to our previous shows, NFC South, I am low on the Falcons, going under 7.5 Wins. So, if that’s going to fucking hit, the Seahawks better beat the Falcons to open it up.

Bradley:
Dude, I’ve got to shit eating grin on my face right now.

Russ:
Why?

Bradley:
Because the Falcons are one of my teams to live that.

Bradley:
We might as well just hook it up and just do this between me and you, mano-e-mano, going live.

Russ:
God damn, we need to get a little livestream going. Hook it up to our social media accounts.

Bradley:
Are you done with your Seahawks’ rant?

Russ:
So, you’re getting good starting value for the Seahawks. What I’m looking for is that trademarked Seahawks slow start, so I can get plus money on my guy, Russell Wilson. Good name, Russ. Love it. To get plus money on the money line. I love buying any time I can get plus money on stud QBs like Russell Wilson. This is probably the primary reason why my hairline is receding at such a rapid rate is because I put myself in these situations where I have to sweat it out to the fourth quarter, but I love it.

Bradley:
These one point sweat games. I don’t hate any time you can get on Russell Wilson plus money. But what I think is yes, slow start for sure. The Seahawks, they do tend to let teams hang around in games and the Falcons are not a team I want to let hang around in a game because their weakness is on the defensive side of the ball. Their strength is the offensive side of the ball with their weapons in Julio and Ridley. Matt Ryan’s experience. Todd Gurley, is he fresh week one? If you’re going to let anybody hang around in this game, it’s not the Atlanta Falcons that I want hanging around. My strategy in this game, is because the Falcons are about a +1.5 point favorite consensus, if the Seahawks do get on them early or maybe it’s the second or third quarter and it looks like it’s an even game but the Seahawks have some type of lead and you can get the Falcons at, not plus money to win. But, plus on the points. I’m looking to get on the Falcons, plus the points. Over the three. Over the field goal. Ideally, over the four, the six, the seven. Something like that. If there’s an opportunity in game to get the Falcons plus the points, I think that’s a good opportunity. It’s going to be a sweater, and I want the points when it comes down to the end in this one.

Russ:
Yeah, I’m a bigger risk taker than Brad. Fuck the points. Give me Russell Wilson and a nice positive number. No, but here’s my caveat to to my live bet. Something else I’m going to be looking for. In addition to a slower Seahawks start, if you look at the weakness of the Seattle Seahawks defense and the weakness of Atlanta’s offense. Atlanta’s weakness is their offensive line. They didn’t do a ton to address their issues last year, and from Seattle’s perspective, they’re built from the outside-in. They got good defensive back play. You add Jamal Adams, Quandre Diggs. You got good linebackers in Bruce Irvin, Bobby Wagner, K.J. Wright. So, they’re built from the outside. What I’m looking for is can the Seahawks get any sort of pass rush? Not necessarily a sack, but hurries / hits on Matt Ryan. Can they make them a little bit uncomfortable? So, clue in on that for the first half or so. Even if the game is tight or if the Falcons are up a little bit, are the Seahawks getting to Matt Ryan to any degree, in any capacity? If they’re not, maybe stay away from live betting Russell Wilson and his comeback. I need to see a little bit of pressure on Matt Ryan, make him a little bit uncomfortable because I don’t want him to put up forty on that defense, which they can do.

Bradley:
The Falcons can score on anybody. They’re good team. They proved last year, finishing off, beating the Niners, winning four out of five. When when they bring their A-game, they’re a good team. Having a good team at home, plus the points against the team that struggles to score sometimes, although they do have an elite quarterback, they can struggle to score. I want the points. Hey, I’m going give you two more games, Russ, because it’s a similar handicap on both of these.

Bradley:
I’ve got the Raiders who are -2 right now, and the Lions who are -3. Raiders playing the Panthers. If the Panthers, who we’ve already gone over how they they could be also contingent. There’s a big a chasm between the haves and have-nots in this league. The really good teams, the Chiefs, the Ravens, the Saints, they’re really damn good. The really bad teams, the Panthers, the Jets, the Jags, like they’re really fucking bad. If these Panthers can come out and get some type of game plan together and get on top of the Raiders, do I love the Raiders? No, but I think the Raiders are a better team. If you can get the Raiders and some type of plus money early to where you can let it play out for the rest of the game, I’d look to get on the Raiders to win the game on the money line at some plus money opposed to laying some juice early.

Bradley:
Same with the Lions. I really like the Lions. I think they’re they’re much better. They are getting the respect in this line of being -3 at home against the Bears. If Matt Nagy can script something in the first drive or two and Lions come out a little conservative and the Bears get on top of them and you can get the Lions at some plus money. We’re not looking at the points. I’m just looking at them to win the game because I think they win the game. If you can get the Lions to win the game sometime early, I think that’s an opportunity: trying to get on the Raiders, on the money-line and trying to get on the Lions money-line early in the game if they get down.

Russ:
I don’t like the Lions-Bears matchup. I feel like for me it’s a coin flip. Any which way you you put that game, I think it’s going to be close the entire game. And, I think ultimately it’s going to come down to that fourth quarter last drive or two.

Bradley:
OK, I hear you. So who would you rather have, Mitchell Trubisky or Matt Stafford? If it’s a close game at the end.

Russ:
I mean, the Bears went 8-8 last year. As much as I hate Trubisky’s play, they can win fucking games and the Lions can lose them. So, I don’t know. Those two teams are so similar in a lot of ways. I don’t know which way is up, which way is down with them. They’re so inconsistent. They can look great one week and bad another week. I’m staying away from that game altogether.

Bradley:
Yeah. I’ll give you one more push back. The Bears picked up a win in week 17 against the Vikings. Whenever the Vikings already had the playoffs locked up, and the Bears gave it an all out effort. They picked up a win there. There was another game in the season somewhere where I think they got kind of a lucky win. So, although they were 8-8, I think they were closer to a 6.5/7 win team last year. I really don’t like Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears, and the Lions were bad last year whenever Stafford was out. They were pretty good when he was in. So again, having the Lions -3 whenever the Bears were a really good playoff team the year before, they are getting the respect. I think that you could get an opportunity to get them to win because I really do think they win the game. So you have another game, live-bet scenario.

Russ:
I do.

Bradley:
Go to it. I know you want to go. You got your hard on already.

Russ:
I do. I feel like I’m fucking smart with this. Hear me out. So, these are live bet totals of the week. Focus in on the Panthers and Raiders, Bucs and Saints. All of this stems from from the Covid environment. Not a ton of time to prepare. And so with that understanding, I looked at match-ups that had, specifically on the offensive side of the ball, either major coaching changes or major changes at key positions on offense.

Russ:
So with the Panthers, obviously, you have a new head coach and Teddy two gloves as your quarterback. From the Raiders perspective, they’re moving locations. They’re not in Oakland anymore. There’s just a lot of change in these two organizations. And so I think you marry those changes and less time to plan. Look for those totals to go under, because you’re going to get a slow start out of those teams. The other one I want to bring to light. The Bucs/Saints. Right now, it’s at about 50 points total, I think 49.5 or 50 points, depending on what book book you’re looking at. But, tell me what does the Bucs offense look like? Sure, we know the pieces that they have in play, but do we feel comfortable saying that they’re going to come out on all cylinders scoring 35 points a game?

Bradley:
I really like this one, Russ. You sold me on this one. Week 1, rust, no pre-season. We’ve got a lot of hype on the Bucs. But, what are they really? We haven’t seen it yet. As much as the Saints can be efficient, they’re not necessarily the most explosive. Now, don’t don’t kill me. Don’t hate me for saying that. Michael Thomas gets a bad rap for all these short slant, which it’s kind of true. Drew Brees threw a high percentage of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage and then some within the first five yards. So, they are kind of dink and dunky at times.

Russ:
But, you add in Emmanuel Sanders into the fold this year that offense is lethal. There’s no way to cut it. You have two quality wide receivers. And finally, I feel like the first time in Brees’ career, he’s got a legit number two. It’ll free up Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara in the backfield. He’s healthy. They’re lethal. They’re explosive. You saying that they’re not explosive?

Bradley:
They’re efficient but not explosive. They’re not taking super duper shots down the field all the time. They’re just efficient. They just get it done. They do. They get it done. And so they’re not the team that is going to make a ton of explosive passes down the field. But, they are going to get down the field. They can get down the field quick. I’m not saying they’re not bad. I do like the Saints. You’re selling me on this, so why do I have to sell back to you, Russ. What the hell, man?

Bradley:
The Bucs have a really good defense, and if the defense can put the halt to a good offense. It could be the Bucs, but we’re not sure what we get out of the Bucs. So, I think that the total could be inflated. But again, it’s a live spot.

Russ:
You’re wet for that Buc’s Defense. So, I know where to get you. But yeah, I’m with you. Don’t play it up front. What’s the term, Brad? Pre-Flop?

Bradley:
Pre-Flop. Yeah. You got it. You got it. Don’t Pre-Flop it. Wait for the flop to see what happens.

Russ:
Get a feel for the game, see how it’s shaping up. We’re going to be able to tell within the first couple drives if the Bucs offense is going to be efficient. If they know what they’re doing, if guys know where they’re going. You’re going to have to play this within the first couple drives. So, just just keep an eye out. Be on your toes.

Bradley:
If Tom starts bitching at his receivers. “C’mon man. I told you. This is how we’re running the offense. Put little Jimmy in.”

Bradley:
Who’s that little guy. They like some little white receiver down there that? I have no idea who he is, but all of a sudden Tommy likes him. It’s just like, what the hell? Edelman, Amendola. That’s what he likes.

Russ:
His little security blanket.

Underdogs

Bradley:
Yeah. What the hell? All right. You ready, Russ? Who let the dogs out.

Bradley:
Your boy Gilly. Russ has got his Doggy-Dogg over there making picks for him, and Gilly only picks underdogs. What’s your favorite dog? What did Gilly sitting over there on the couch? What did he advise you? Where did he advise you to put your money on a dog this week, Russ?

Russ:
So, we talked a little bit about this before, I’m going to let you get yours with Miami, so you go into that. I’m going to say I love Miami at +229. It’s too much value to pass up, for me, for a team that has historically given the Pats problems. I mean, Miami alone was responsible for 12 Brady losses, which is almost more than double second place and triple everyone else. Second place being the Jets. Granted the numbers are a little inflated because they’re divisional opponents, but the Dolphins always give Belichick fits. So, I love that number at +229. And then I thought a little bit about it, Brad, do I go Titans +105. But, I feel like that’s cheating out the listener.

Bradley:
You are cheating out the listeners.

Russ:
So, where am I going, Brad?

Bradley:
If you said you were going to give me my Dolphins because Dolphins are my team this year and then you cheated. Let me scan it real quick and look at the lines. You are going to the Browns or the Cardinals?

Russ:
Wrong! I’m going with, TOMPA BAY.

Bradley:
Oh my goodness. I don’t hate it, I do like it actually.

Russ:
I’m just looking for value here. I’m looking at the teams where it’s not a stretch for these guys to leave the game with a win. I feel good about laying money on the G.O.A.T, especially at +160. I don’t want to go crazy and try to reach for a Browns team at +300 or reach for a Jags team at +300. Or, the Texans at +340. I’m looking for a good opportunity where I think a team has a legitimate shot at winning the game. I mean, it’s twofold here. Sure, the Bucs offense could could get off to a slow start, but the Saints D – how do you game plan for a team that you’ve never game planned for? This Bucs team has never been on the field at the same time together. There could be an advantage that swings the other way. I feel good about it. I feel good when I’m putting money on Brady and Gronk who have chemistry already. They’re going to have that chemistry. You add in Godwin, Evans, newly acquired Leonard Fournette. I mean, now you got a little bit of versatility. Generally, running backs can pick up an offense pretty quickly. There’s not a ton that goes into that there. And then, the Bucs defense. If they just stop the bleeding, mitigate it, keep it close, the bucks have a legitimate shot at winning this game and I love it at +160.

Bradley:
I am all there with you. I will be on the Bucs, not on the money line. I won’t. But early in the summer when the line first came out plus four and a half, I put the article out. I couldn’t resist. I six-point teased it to +10.5. So I will be rooting for the Buccaneers alongside with you. And, I think you do make good points. The Bucs are very, very live to win. And you know who’s the even bigger dog, who’s live as hell? The clash of my two opinions is? It is the Dolphins and the Patriots. Your Patriots. I love the Dolphins +225. I mean, can the Patriots win the game. Yeah, for sure. These are underdogs.

Russ:
Real quick before your get into it. Did you hear that Fitzpatrick might not start game one? His mom passed. So, I mean we have to consider these things.

Bradley:
Damn, Russ. You just drop that one on me before I give it?

Russ:
Listeners can’t see it, Brad’s rubbing his mustache, he’s getting nervous.

Bradley:
I still like it, though. I still. I do. I like Tua. I like Tua a lot. Would I rather have Fitzpatrick? Yeah, 100 percent. I’m going to stick with it because that’s what I got and I love the Dolphins. Dolphins are going to be my pick. But, if Fitzpatrick doesn’t play, I’m not going to lie guys, I wouldn’t venture that way. What I’m going to go with is last time we saw the Dolphins, they were in Foxborough. That’s where we’re at here. Putting the beats on the Patriots with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. What happened this offseason? The Patriots got worse. The Dolphins got better. The Dolphins got a lot better. There’s no reason the Dolphins can’t go in and win this game right away. I’m really high on the Dolphins. I’m low on the Patriots. This is just a great opportunity to give the Dolphins +225/+230, something like that. I’m not excited for it if Fitzpatrick doesn’t play. I think he ends up playing, Russ. I mean we’re still like out. You just wanted to see me squirm. You wanted to see me squirm right before.

Russ:
But hey, if you’re trying to take an optimistic spin on this. If Tua starts week one, if the listeners have been following us, your bank account at this point is on the Dolphins and their success. You’ve got them to win the division. You’ve got them to win the AFC championship and to reach the Super Bowl. And, you mentioned it in the AFC East preview. If you haven’t listen, go back and listen. But, if your AFC championship and Super Bowl tickets are to be live, Tua has got to get in there at some point.

Bradley:
He does.

Russ:
And who’s to say he doesn’t come out here week one when he’s not supposed to go, and he just rattles off a quick win against the Pats. Immediate confidence, and it spurs into forcing Flore’s hands to be like, “Damn, this guy just came in to Foxborough, won us week one. Let’s see what he’s got a week two.” Then, slowly but surely Tua starts to gain his confidence and they’re a legit contender. I’m not going to go right now for the AFC Championship or Super Bowl, but they’re a legitimate contender to win the AFC East.

Bradley:
You’re getting me so excited talking about that because I’m kind of thinking like, how many rookies have made their first ever career start against Bill Belichick in Foxborough and one? Probably zero, right?

Russ:
It’s got to be.

Bradley:
I mean, just rookies playing against Bill Belichick in general.

Russ:
It’s brutal. It’s absolutely brutal.

Bradley:
Yeah. So I think that would be pretty cool if Tua can grab that one. So, I like Dolphins. Dolphins, my dog.

Russ:
Grab the Bucs +160, let’s go.

Trap Line

Bradley:
Let’s go. Now that we’ve given you the dog. We want you to take a step back and realize some of these lines could be a trap! They could be a trap, Russ.

Bradley:
I love this section because when you go down the line, go down the lines and see everything. Some of these games hop out and they are like, oh my gosh, this team is for sure going to win. They’ve got to win. But, not so fast, my friend. Russ, what line sticks out to you that just immediately jumped off the page, grabbed you by your face, slapped you around and said, this is free money, Russ But whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Not so fast, Russ. Which one of these are a trap!

Russ:
You’re cracking me up.

Russ:
So, earlier in the week, maybe two weeks ago at this point. I was talking to you about I was thinking about teasing the Packers. They’re currently sitting at +2.5 Against the spread or +120 moneyline. So, I thought about teasing it. I thought about just potentially taking the line at +2.5. So, I feel like if I’m thinking about it, other people must be thinking about it. You take a step back, and you think Aaron Rodgers is going to be on a “Fuck You Tour” with the Packers drafting Jordan love. He’s going to be like, fuck you guys. You think I’m done? No. And then he’s going to rattle off so many wins in a row. He’s going to start the season with a blow out to the Vikings. Your second year with Matt LeFleur. Things should get tighter on that offense. Green Bay was 2-0, so they had the series sweep last year against Minnesota. They’re generally a good team on the road. They were 6-2 and they are going to go to Minnesota for this match up.

Russ:
I mean, you also look at the matchup in general. So, the Minnesota Vikings have a revamped secondary. They also let pass rusher Everson Griffin go. He’s now with the Cowboys. They lost run stuff, Michael Pierce, due to Covid-19 opt out. Not to mention Stefon Diggs, one of your your top two receivers on that offense is out. So, if you have a revamped secondary and you’re going against one of the all time great passers in the league in Aaron Rodgers, you just think, oh, my God, this is free money, and I’m going to get a little bit greedy. Give me the +2.5. I don’t want to necessarily run the risk of losing by one or two points, but if you can’t get through the +3, then you’re not getting good value out of that pick. I looked at the the Packers record last year and the scores with each of those games, they had one game that was decided by two or fewer points.

Bradley:
Hey, Russ, I’m a little confused. Who’s the trap here? Which which one of these lines is the trap?

Russ:
So I think the trap is Green Bay at +2.5. Don’t bet that. Bet the money line. If you like the Packers, what I’m telling you is that line at +2.5, if the Packers lose, they’re likely going to lose by more than that +2.5.

Bradley:
Yeah, for sure.

Russ:
But, I still like them to win, and I like them as a dog. Not as much as I like the Bucs at +160. But if you’re with me. Right. And you feel like all of this kind of aligns. You think it’s a good match-up for the Packers. They have the series sweep last year. Overall, they match up well with the Vikings, take them on the money line. Don’t take them against the spread. It’s a bad number.

Bradley:
Yeah, no, the +2.5 for sure is a bad number. It opened Green Bay +3.5. It’s down to +1 in some spots. Green Bay is getting a lot of love. I think Green Bay could be the trap for sure. I know Minnesota has regressed, but the Packers defense was some Swiss cheese last year, no pun intended, Russ. Noon start, Kirk Cousins, not a fan, but he does good at noon. Dalvin Cook is still there. Zimmer is a good coach.

Bradley:
Is there turmoil? You can make an argument both ways that there’s turmoil in Green Bay. You can make an argument that Rodgers is on his fuck you tour. This game is a total stay away from me. I think it could be a trap both ways.

Bradley:
But, my favorite trap, Russ. I think you got sucked into it a little earlier. Your boy, Mr. Unlimited. Mr. Unlimited, Danger-Russ.

Bradley:
Dude, doesn’t Seahawks’ -1/-1.5/pickem, whatever. Doesn’t that just hop off the page as free money?

Russ:
Of course. That’s why I’m on it.

Bradley:
That’s why you’re on it. It’s too easy, right?

Bradley:
I look back over the past couple of years just to see because I was curious. The Seahawks in September are .500 team over the past, they are one game over .500: 2-2, 2-2, 3-1, 2-2. This is the Russell Wilson era. So, they typically don’t start off too terribly hot. And again, Pete Carroll lets teams hang around. Week one, Atlanta Falcons, explosive offense. Road game. Across the country. This is not free money, guys. If you’re thinking, “oh, this is the bottom of the barrel NFC South team versus a potential Super Bowl quality team, and we’re at pickem or -1/-1.5 to win the game. That’s so free on Seattle.”

Bradley:
Hmm. Mm hmm. Don’t just go down that hole too terribly quick. For sure. Seattle can win. But, I think that one’s a trap. Don’t get sucked into it like Russ. Please don’t get sucked into it.

Russ:
That’s what makes you and I a little different. I love a good sweat out. Russell Wilson, he’s going to come through. He’s going to come through whether that be late or whatever. I think the dynamic of this season you have to be ready to capitalize up front and get off to a strong start. I think who sees success early in the season is going to be mentally strong teams. I mentioned it previously. It’s going to be a weird dynamic with no fans. There’s going to be a really clear ability for the defense to hear the line of scrimmage adjustments. There’s just a lot of mental factors at play. When I think about each of these teams,Russell Wilson, I see it. He’s one of the most mentally strong players this league has. I think he is going to see more success because of this situation, the post Covid situation, than an Atlanta team who has proven over the years to be so inconsistent. They have mental gaps at critical times when Super Bowls are on the line. Dan Quinn, run the fucking ball. You’re up 28-3. Run the ball. Don’t pass it. Don’t take sacks. Matt Ryan, like those are the type of things that are going to lose you ball games. And, I just think the Seahawks are so much tighter from a mentality perspective than the Falcons are. It’s not a trap for me.

Bradley:
You’re getting under my skin, Russ. We’re going to have to go heads up on this one. I’m just going to take the Falcons and you take the Seahawks. I mean, the more that the more I hear you talk, the more that you make me want to bet against the Seahawks.

Russ:
You’re putting your money on Dan Quinn and Matt Ryan against Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll. That just sounds funny.

Bradley:
It does. That’s why it’s a trap, Russ. I mean, you would have thought that the San Francisco 49ers are going to steamroll him last year too. They played damn good. Don’t sleep on the Falcons. I know you love that under.

Russ:
I’m snoring on him.

Closing Bell

Bradley:
You’re snoring on them. We’ll get something together on the side. But hey, man. We’ve taken way too long. That’s the closing bell. Russ, we got to finish this thing out. We’ve gone way too long. Thank you very much, everybody. Closing bell. Russ, who you buying? Who you selling? You got to go long on at least one team. You got to go short somebody. Who are you buying and who are you selling?

Russ:
I missed the fucking memo. So apologize on this, guys. But I’m shorting two teams. I’m shorting two teams.

Bradley:
That’s fine too.

Russ:
I’m shorting two teams. I’m shorting the Falcons for all of the reasons we talked about earlier. I think you have one of the toughest schedules overall, the second hardest schedule. I’m anticipating the Falcons are going to finish third in the division. It’s a top heavy division. You have two legitimate Super Bowl contenders in the Saints and Bucs. When I looked at the numbers last year, all third place finishers across the league, only two of them finished with greater than seven wins. I think the Falcons are going to be around right around 6-10, 7-9. So I’m shorting the Falcons long term.

Russ:
I’m also shorting. Ugh, mah. Close those ears.

Bradley:
Don’t do it to yourself, Russ!

Russ:
I have to short the Patriots. I have to. There’s nothing about about this season that makes me feel good or feel excited. Who am I supposed to get excited about?

Bradley:
Super Cam. Super Cam to save the day.

Russ:
The only thing that I can get excited about is to see what magic Bill Belichick can can drum up with all of these question marks and all of the shuffles at QB, wide receiver, on the defensive side. It’s going to need to be his best work. I just don’t have confidence in the Patriots long term. I don’t think they’re going to win the division. I think there’s real potential for them to be a below .500 team.

Bradley:
I’m all over that one with you. I’m shorting the Broncos from here on out. It kind of plays on what we did earlier. I’m not buying Drew Lock. I’m selling, selling, selling Drew Lock. Sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell. Drew Lock and the Broncos are and over-hyped team this year. I think Drew has the potential to get exposed this year. Don’t buy into the Broncos hype. What you can buy. Buy, buy, buy, buy. Buy the Indianapolis Colts to win the South. To be an over five hundred team this year. I like them a lot. Look for them. Spots the tease. Possibly some money line games. Cover some short spreads.

Bradley:
And I’m going to buy, buy, buy the Detroit Lions. Russ, you hear me on that one? The Detroit Lions. Matt Stafford is back, MVP quality Matt Stafford was playing last year. It’s Patricia’s make or break year. He brought in more Patriots. All he did was bring in more Patriots. If he can’t get his shit straight this year, just fucking bounce him. They’ve got to come together. There’s questions in Green Bay, there’s questions in Chicago and there’s questions in Minnesota. I think all three of those teams have questions and have possibly gotten worse. The Lions can only be better from this point with the return of Matt Stafford and more Patriot defenders. Patricia’s got to get his shit straight. Buy the Lions, guys, buy the Lions. You good with that, Bus?

Russ:
I’m good, let’s wrap it up.

Bradley:
Let’s wrap it up. Hey, thanks so much. Please share, subscribe, friends, family, share, share, share. If you got some entertainment, you got some value. If you think you got some winning picks, and you know somebody that would enjoy this show, please share it. It would mean a ton.

Bradley:
Bus, let’s get out of here, my man. Patriots going down. Dolphins winning. Teased. Gave you some teams to look forward to this year, and gave you something to keep your eyes on when we watch the games. We love watching the games. Get those live bets in. That’s the way to go. So be good, everybody. Good luck with all your bets. See ya! Peace!