My betting approach to NFL Week 3 is a little different than normal.
It was Armageddon on Sunday with so many notable injuries. To name a few:
NFL Week 2 Injuries
- Nick Bosa, 49ers – torn ACL
- Saquon Barkley – Giants – torn ACL
- Christian McCaffrey – Panthers – high ankle sprain
- Drew Lock – Broncos – sprained AC join in throwing shoulder
- Courtland Sutton – Broncos – torn ACL
- Jimmy Garoppolo – 49ers – high ankle sprain
- Davante Adams – Packers – hamstring
- Tavon Young – Ravens – knee
- Malik Hooker – Colts – achilles
- Raheem Mostert – 49ers – sprained MCL
- Whole Dallas Cowboys defense and offensive line
I almost feel like we are back in Week 1.
A lot of teams will take on different identities with their star players out, and I’m not sure what to make of them.
It’s a game a mental warfare trying to balance team performances through the first two weeks with how they’ll fare with significant injuries going forward.
I have no feel for against-the-spread, which makes teasing teams a little tougher.
To make things more complicated, the Ravens and Chiefs square off on Monday night.
We don’t have the luxury of banking on these two teams to fill out our teaser legs or get quick wins against-the-spread.
With the above in mind, here are my 3 betting tips for NFL Week 3:
1. Teaser with an open slot
Generally, I like to bet on the Chiefs, Ravens, 49ers, Packers and Patriots.
However, the Ravens and Chiefs square off on Monday night for the regular season Super Bowl. Every important player on the 49ers is injured. And, Davante Adams’ hamstring injury looms large for a GB pass offense lacking a true WR2 (is it Aaron Jones, your Running Back)?
Ride the Rams
Sure, you can certainly find value pre-flop in the Rams at +2.5 vs. a streaking Bills team. Or, the Titans at -2.5 against the horrible, horrific, horrendous Vikings.
But it’s tough to find lines against-the-spread that I really like beyond these two games. Maybe the Chiefs at +3.5 or +155 on the money line?
The Rams line at +2.5 screams teaser. You can push them through the 4, 6 and 7 to get to +8.5. As much as I don’t believe in Jared Goff, the Rams look good.
Maybe empty stadiums is exactly what Goff needed. It opens up the line of communication between he and McVay, and there is less pressure when you don’t have 60,000 fans peering down on you.
Fade the Bills
The Bills are getting respect at -2.5 but look at who they’ve played so far: the Jets and Dolphins. Both of those teams suck.
Look for Aaron Donald and the Rams defense, who are top 3 in rushing and pass defense, to mitigate Josh Allen’s effectiveness.
The Rams will be the first test for the 2020 Bills. Tease those Rams past a TD and FG to +8.5 and wait for week 4 to fill your open slot (i.e. Ravens at Washington Football Team).
2. Lean on live betting
In-game plays can be one of the more profitable ways to approach sports betting.
Admittedly, sometimes I get too much into my feelings when I watch Tom Brady or the Patriots play, but there is a ton of value watching games and making plays based on what your eyes see.
Week 2 injuries create opportunity
I really like this approach in Week 3 because of the amount of key injuries across the league. I want to see how these teams look before potentially backing them with my hard earned cash! Follow @russe11vaughan and @bradleyporras on Twitter for our live-bet plays.
3. Don’t blow your load before MNF
Regular season Super Bowl
I mentioned this earlier. This is the Super Bowl of the regular season.
A divine gift from the Super Bowl Gods. It’s better than sex.
Chiefs at the Baltimore Ravens. The G.O.A.T. Patrick Mahomes vs. 2019 league MVP Lamar Jackson.
Don’t blow your load
I don’t want to blow all of my money before Monday night.
Let’s be real. We want to watch this game, and we want to bet this game.
Don’t burn up your money before we can get there.
Save it, and let’s have fun Monday night.
I will be backing Mahomie at +3.5 or +155 money line, and there WILL be live-play opportunities.
Good luck guys! NFL Week 3. LET’S GO!
Questions about any other games?
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