If you’ve listened to the PreSnapPicks Podcast, you know Brad and my preferred strategy to attack the betting market each week: Live Bets, Teasers, and the occasional moneyline or ATS play.
So far, live betting has been friendly to us!
In Week 4, I was 80% on my live plays and before that Brad was riding a hot-hand, ripping off nearly 10 straight winners. We post most of our live plays on our Twitter accounts as close to real time as possible.
Below are 3 of 5 plays that I cashed in Week 4. I also payed Chiefs -6.5 on Monday night, and my lone loser was Bears +7.5.
I want to be clear that the intent of this blog isn’t to push the “we are good, listen to us” agenda. We WILL have bad weeks.
Ultimately, we want to provide you with content that is fun, engaging and informative while sharing betting strategies that work for us.
Here are a few philosophies that we try to stick to:
Let it come to you
Brad and I firmly believe the best way to make money long-term is to be picky and patient pre-flop.
Our approach is that true pre-snap picks should be reserved for your “can’t miss plays.”
Pick your spots
For example, Brad and I took the Chiefs +160 in Week 3 on the moneyline against the Ravens because the opportunity to take a Super Bowl champion and MVP QB at a +160 price tag was highway robbery.
It was worth the risk and if that ship sank, we were okay with it. There are very few times when I see a bet before kick-off that give me that “giddy feeling.”
The Chiefs play gave me that feeling.
If you get the giddy feeling, place the bet.
If not, stay patient.
Eliminate the guesswork
One of the biggest reasons I prefer live betting is because all guesswork is eliminated. You’re giving yourself a chance to let your eyes and brain absorb the matchup.
Maybe some of the research and predictions you’ve put together before a single down is played comes to fruition. But, maybe it doesn’t.
Watch it unfold
Live betting affords you the opportunity to digest the game before laying any money.
Doesn’t that seem like the smartest approach, all things considered?
Why are we trying to outsmart the computer algorithms and NERDS. We may win the battle, but we will lose that war.
What I learned from live betting NFL Week 4
In Week 4, I really liked the Falcons and Packers o56 point total. Both teams have horrible defenses, and I thought the scoring would mimic what we saw during the Browns and Cowboys matchup.
I also really liked the Arizona Cardinals -3 at the Carolina Panthers.
Be very selective for pre-flop
I called Brad to ask for his take and, ultimately, he gave me enough pause to not place either bet before kickoff. Both of those bets would have lost.
Packers and Falcons combined for 46 points, and the Cardinals lost 31-21.
The saying, “sometimes the best bets are the ones you don’t make” certainly rang true for me in Week 4 and once again reiterates 1). Staying patient; and 2). Eliminating the Guesswork.
When you actually watched the games, you could quickly tell the Cardinals were in a dog fight. Matt Rhule, Teddy Bridgewater, and Robby Anderson showed up and are playing pressure free football.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals have sputtered two weeks in a row and have struggled to move the ball consistently.
Separately, the Falcons continue to be a mess and missed Julio Jones the entire second half with a hamstring injury – another angle to further push our live betting agenda.
I guess what I’m saying is, thanks Bradley.
Russ’ live bet watch for NFL Week 5
Chiefs at Raiders: Chiefs -13
Vanilla Chiefs again
I’m looking for a Chiefs slow start.
Usually, Monday nights are followed with a bye week. Not this year. Not with COVID.
Chiefs could get off to slow start after a Monday night tilt with the Patriots. I’m looking for a Chiefs line closer to -9.5, though I still feel comfortable taking them at -13.
Weak Raiders defense
The Raiders defense is bad and the Chiefs offense will get rolling at some point.
This will be a two score game in the Chiefs favor, but I think I can get a better number in game.
Bucs at Bears: Bucs -5
Short week for Tampa Bay and Tom Brady, as they will be playing on Thursday Night Football. Additionally, the Bucs will be without their number one tight end, OJ Howard due to an Achilles injury.
Bucs still haven’t shown they can play a solid 60 minutes worth of football, and the Bears defense will be one of the best Brady has seen in 2020.
My hunch says Bears at +5 is the side to play, but I want to see how the Bucs will look on a short week and which Nick Foles we’ll see in Week 5.
Eagles at Steeler: Steelers -7
First Half Eagles
Eagles have led going into halftime in 3 of the first 4 games.
If this trend continues, I will look to back the Steelers against-the-spread or maybe on a second half line.
Good luck guys and gals!
NFL Week 5. LET’S GO!
PreSnapPicks Week 5 Podcast
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